So this is it, Theresa May’s week of destiny. The week when MPs votes on Brexit legislation will determine whether she stays or is pushed out, whether her government survives or falls. There is a formula, a set recipe if you like, for a Tory parliamentary party hullabaloo. The familiar ingredients are present for this week’s great showdown.

First, the House of Lords stuffs the contentious legislation under consideration, in this case the Brexit legislation, with unacceptable amendments. This leads to calls for reform of the upper chamber that never quite happen, then rumbles about a constitutional crisis, followed by many speeches of great length which are ignored by the world at large.

Then Boris makes a speech explaining why it is all awful – seeming to forget he is one of the most senior members of the government he is complaining about.

The Brexit Secretary David Davis threatens to resign over an obscure point that no-one really understands, and then doesn’t. Mr Davis has form in this area. When he can’t find anyone else to argue with he does so with himself and fights a by-election – hands-up anyone who can remember what that was all about.

Then comes the DUP throwing their weight about. Nobody really knows what they want, other than they want to be inside the United Kingdom at all costs. However when the UK Parliament this last week looked as though it might change a law or two in Northern Ireland, in the absence of any other form of government in the province they became very cross indeed.

Jacob Rees Mogg MP tours the television studios, although he is now so grand the cameras go to him at his country house at the weekend. His recent silence is worth noting.

Amber Rudd and Iain Duncan Smith, echoing the famous Clarke/Redwood pact of an earlier period, issue a joint call for unity.

Anonymous sources – always the most journalist friendly – brief that the Prime Minister is for the chop, the Downing Street machine is hopeless, it’s all a disaster involving humiliation and panic on all fronts. Jeremy Corbyn will be Prime Minister in time to enjoy the August sunshine by the side of the Chequers swimming pool.

So the scene is set for this week’s two days of debate and votes. Few would envy the Prime Minister this week.

Hang on a moment though. The Conservatives are now polling regularly in the mid 40s. The recent local election results were perfectly good considering they are eight years into government. Jeremy Corbyn does well enough to keep his job, but not well enough on the face of it to win a general election.

This week, for all the fire and thunder that has been and will be expended, Conservative MPs have no real sensible choice other than to support the government in the lobbies this week. The vast majority of them know it. Most of them voted for a referendum, voted to trigger Article 50, and supported Mrs May to be leader and Prime Minister.

There is, and never was, any easy heroic way for the UK to leave the European Union. It will take time, patience and determination. The votes this week are an essential part of that process.