Two hundred and six years ago this month, June 1812, war broke out between the United States of America and the United Kingdom. It would last nearly three years, each side would win and lose battles, the White House was burnt to the ground and the result would be effectively a score draw – territorial boundaries unchanged, no-one quite sure how it started, and everyone pleased it was over. The cause seems to have been fundamentally about trade disputes. This mattered a lot to the Americans and less to the British, who were embroiled in an intractable European row fighting Napoleon. The parallels are not exact with today, but similar enough to make it worthy of comment.
With pretty robust public support Donald Trump has launched aggressive trade sanctions against the European Union, including the United Kingdom, and is threatening equally tough action against China. At the G7 he frequently and aggressively attacked key allies France and Canada, and, as far as one can tell, completely ignored another, Britain. It is difficult to say whether being ignored or being the object of a stinging twitter attack is the better place to be. The President is now threatening to be equally belligerent with NATO allies, an organisation about which he has at best been equivocal. At the heart of these two positions, on trade and on NATO, the President is tapping into a deeply held sense that for too long the United States has been taken advantage of by her closest friends and chief trading partners and it is time to redress the balance.
A sense of grievance and feeling of not being treated fairly is what provoked the war in 1812. Tapping into similar senses of grievance propelled Donald Trump to the White House and is what is driving his position on these key areas of international policy. Of course it is inconceivable disputes, no matter how aggressive, between Europe and the United States could lead to armed conflict. It is not inconceivable this could happen between China and the United States. Whilst China has her eye on the world and plans well ahead Europe, and Britain, are now, as in 1812, primarily occupied with themselves. The focus is mainly on disputes inside and between neighbouring European countries. It will not do.
Despite the incredible level of noise and nonsense this week the Prime Minister won all the votes she tabled in the Commons on the European Withdrawal Bill. Brexit is on track. Ignore the doom-mongers. The European Commission should take note of the facts, not the noise. Both sides need to sit down and sort a deal and agree a new partnership. In the world beyond Europe much is happening that needs our attention. Britain and Europe need to stop the bickering and face out to the world once again.