December 4 marks a key moment in this year of defining political events. Austria and Italy go to the polls. Austria is re-running its Presidential election and the far-right candidate looks close to clinching the victory that narrowly eluded him a few months ago. In Italy the Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, no friend of Britain, is struggling to win support in a referendum on constitutional changes. In recent days Mr Renzi has been upping the anti-Brussels rhetoric, revealing the fact that he thinks attacking the EU is a way of winning votes in Italy. Both elections currently look like “going the wrong way” from the point of view of Angela Merkel and the EU.
Next year France and Germany both go to the polls for national elections. No-one now would be surprised by an upset in either or both. Even if there are not upsets in Austria, Italy, France and Germany we are likely to see in each a significant rise in the discontent with the status quo that we have seen in Britain and the US.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble’s intervention this week is the latest in a string of tough and uncompromising messages transmitted to the British people by European leaders following the Brexit vote. It is as if by treating Britain as an unruly child we will come to learn the error of our ways and somehow and in someway we will fall back into line. By adopting this approach European leaders badly misjudge the mood of the British electorate and their own electorates as well. Jean Claude Juncker adopted a similar tone with the US following Donald Trump’s election as President. He does not have to worry about an electorate because he is unelected.
This approach from Juncker is counter-productive in terms of the UK and makes Theresa May’s job harder. It is probably counter-productive with Europe’s voters, and almost certainly counter-productive with the new President of the United States.
Britain needs and wants allies across the European continent. It just does not want to be locked into an outdated and unwieldy federal super-structure. Britain and its continental fiends have much more in common than that which divides us – trade and travel certainly, but security, defence, a shared history of learning, education, art, literature, and scientific co-operation too.
We need to re-fashion the relationship so it strengthens both sides, not weakens each other. By treating Britain in such an aggressive way European leaders not only further alienate the British, they also show to their own domestic voters that they are not interested in the concerns of ordinary people and remain pre-occupied by their own ambitions rather than the concerns of those who vote for them. This is dangerous for continental European political and economic stability. Continental European political and economic instability is also bad news for Britain.
Europe’s leaders need to ditch their tone of querulous frustration and replace it with one of warmth and co-operation. A dialogue, of listening and of pragmatic accommodation, needs to supplant the aggressive brinkmanship which now seems to dominate.
Ignoring voters in the UK and the US by governing establishments has proved to be a losing tactic. There is no reason to think the electorates in Austria, Italy, France and Germany will be any more pliable or subservient. It is time for Europe’s politicians to listen to and work with those who vote and not just to continue to ride roughshod over them. European leaders need to adopt a friendlier tone, for all our sakes.